PURPOSE, OBJECTIVE, AND BACKGROUND OF WORK TO BE PERFORMED: NEXT-GENERATION OPERATIONS SEEK TO FACILITATE H…

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PURPOSE, OBJECTIVE, AND BACKGROUND OF WORK TO BE PERFORMED: NEXT-GENERATION OPERATIONS SEEK TO FACILITATE HIGHER AIRCRAFT FLOW CAPACITY WHILE MAINTAINING, OR IMPROVING, CURRENT SAFETY LEVELS. TO ACHIEVE THIS, A NUMBER OF ELEMENTS COME INTO PLAY, INCLUDING INFRASTRUCTURE, TECHNOLOGY, PROCEDURES, AND CULTURE. TO ACCOMPLISH HIGHER CAPACITY AIRCRAFT FLOW IN THE FUTURE, AIRCRAFT MUST HAVE THE ABILITY TO OPERATE SAFELY UNDER REDUCED SEPARATION STANDARDS. THESE NEW OPERATIONAL MODES WILL NATURALLY INTRODUCE NEW SAFETY HAZARDS. THE PURPOSE OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO DEVELOP A LOGIC-EVOLVED MODEL TO EVALUATE THE AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT (ATM) SAFETY IMPACT RESULTING FROM NEW ATM CONCEPTS (INCLUDING BOTH NEW TECHNOLOGY AND PROCEDURAL SYSTEM MODIFICATIONS) EMERGING FROM THE NASA NGATS ATM-AIRSPACE PROJECT OF THE ASP. THIS PROOF-OF-CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT PHASE SHALL DIRECT THE SYSTEMS MODELING FOCUS ON A SUBSET OF AIRSPACE OPERATIONS FOR DEMONSTRATING THE CAPABILITY. SUBSEQUENT OPTION YEARS WILL ADDRESS BROADENING THE TOOL TOWARD PROVIDING A FULL NAS-WIDE, GATE-TO-GATE ASSESSMENT CAPABILITY EVENTUALLY. BETWEEN 2003 AND 2006, NASA'S (FORMER) AVIATION SAFETY AND SECURITY PROGRAM (AVSSP) DEDICATED A SIGNIFICANT EFFORT TO MODELING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM (ATS) WITH RESPECT TO SECURITY-RELATED OPERATIONS. THIS EXPERIENCE POSITIONED THE NASA TEAM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LEAD ON UNDERSTANDING MODELING OF THE ATS RELATIVE TO THE MORE GENERAL CONDITION OF SAFETY AND AIRSPACE RELATED OPERATIONS. GIVEN THAT SECURITY ATTACKS AGAINST THE ATS RESULT IN AIRCRAFT MISHAPS, AIRFRAME LOSSES, AND LOSS OF LIFE, SAFETY AND SECURITY ARE ANALOGOUS. HOWEVER, AVIATION SAFETY IS THE MORE GENERAL ASPECT OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS, EXTENDING AN OVERARCHING UMBRELLA OVER ALL ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM, FROM FLIGHT OPERATIONS, TO AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, AND AIRPORT FUNCTIONS AND OPERATIONS. TO UNDERSTAND THE SAFETY RISKS, EITHER FROM A BASELINE PERSPECTIVE OR RELATING TO CHANGES IN RISK WITH CURRENT OR FUTURE CHANGES TO THE SYSTEM, A GENERALIZED, LOGICAL, POSSIBILITY-BASED APPROACH, CONSIDERING PROBABILITIES WHERE APPLICABLE AND AVAILABLE, MUST BE USED. THIS REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL EFFORT AND HAS APPLICATIONS ACROSS NUMEROUS DISCIPLINES FOR STRUCTURING THIS IMPORTANT MODELING EFFORT THAT HAS SYSTEM-WIDE RAMIFICATIONS. FOR THESE REASONS, IT IS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF NASA TO USE THE LOGIC EVOLVED DECISION (LED) SUPPORT CAPABILITY AND ASSOCIATED METHODOLOGIES/TOOLS TO PERFORM THIS WORK. ADDITIONALLY, IT WOULD BE ADVANTAGEOUS FOR NASA TO USE THE LED METHODOLOGY IN THIS WORK SINCE THE LEARNING CURVE WILL BE MINIMIZED AND PREVIOUSLY ACCOMPLISHED WORK FOR THE AVSSP WILL BE LEVERAGED IN THIS NEW TASK.