SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SPES) REPRESENT A MAJOR HAZARD FOR EXTRAVEHICULAR MANEUVERS BY ASTRONAUTS IN EARTH O…

Public award description

SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SPES) REPRESENT A MAJOR HAZARD FOR EXTRAVEHICULAR MANEUVERS BY ASTRONAUTS IN EARTH ORBIT, AND FOR EVENTUAL MANNED INTERPLANETARY SPACE TRAVEL. WE PROPOSE TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM TO AID FORECASTERS IN THE PREDICTION OF SUCH EVENTS, AND IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF ``ALL CLEAR'' TIME PERIODS WHEN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUCH EVENTS OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM COMBINES EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENTS WITH PHYSICS-BASED MODELS BY LEVERAGING THREE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TECHNOLOGIES: A TOOL FOR FORECASTING SOLAR ERUPTIONS FROM LINE-OF-SIGHT MAGNETOGRAMS (UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT HUNTSVILLE), PHYSICS-BASED MODELS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE WITH EMBEDDED SOLAR ERUPTIONS (PREDICTIVE SCIENCE, INC., OR PSI), AND EMPIRICAL/PHYSICS-BASED ASSESSMENTS OF ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES USING THE EARTH-MOON-MARS RADIATION ENVIRONMENT MODULE (EMMREM, UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE). WHEN COMPLETED, THE PROPOSED SPE THREAT ASSESSMENT TOOL, OR STAT, WILL REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD IN OUR ABILITY TO ASSESS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF SPE EVENTS.