An Integrative Approach to Control Group Creation for Prevention Research

PROJECT ABSTRACTThe goal of this Phase II SBIR project is to develop a method for creating algorithmically generated control groupsvirtual controlsThese will be composed of synthetic cases that have two characteristicspretest similarity to whatever prevention treatment group may present itself andpatterns of change over time that closely mimic the normal course of alcohol and drug use developmentThe field of alcohol and drug prevention is one that has significantly matured and has rich data resources that can be employed to this endNotablynumerous school and community efficacy studies have employed control groups in randomized control trialsAdditional etiological and epidemiological studies have collected similar dataGiven the large amount of data available for analysisit is now possible to model the onset of alcohol and drug use among adolescentsWe propose to gather data from previous studies and develop statistical models that can be used to predict the onset of alcohol and drug useAn algorithm will be developed that will create integrative control cases to match to a treatment group s demographics and pretest mediating variable scores and then estimate future drug useSeveral benefits of this method are anticipatedAlcohol and drug prevention researchers and practitioners will be able to use this approach to test the effectiveness of disseminated interventions and to quickly evaluate the potential of new and alternative prevention interventionsSpecificallythis method will provide a means to evaluate the effectiveness of alcohol and drug prevention programs that are disseminated when randomization cannot occurThis method will also make evaluating new and adapted programs easier by reducing the challenges of recruitmentsubject retentionand onsite data collection and pretest non equivalence that often occur when l classroomsschools and communities are assigned to conditionIn this projectwe willgather data from previous longitudinal drug and alcohol research projects focused on adolescentsharmonize these data to match a predefined coding scheme and include them in an integrated referential databaserefine and validate statistical models developed during Phase I to ensure algorithms used to generate virtual control cases are valid and replicableprepare a web based system that will allow virtual control group technology to be maximally automatedandconduct de novo field trials of disseminated interventions to demonstrate the viability of the system for providing meaningful comparisons NARRATIVEAdolescent drug useincluding the consumption of alcoholcigarettes and marijuana remain significant health and social problemsPrograms designed to prevent substance use need to be evaluated to assure they are effectiveThis research will develop a tool that program providers and those charged with administrative oversight can use to evaluate program effectiveness