Data-driven, Robust, and Efficient Assessment of Deterrence (D3)

The goal of this project is to understand the impact of challenger strategies on the intent of a target to pursue a gray zone conflict. Understanding the causal impact of a deterrent strategy in one case, and thus its potential efficacy in a future situation, must account for other possible causes that would explain observed deterrent outcomes. We define the intent of the target as the observed behaviors and outcomes in response to demands made between actors. The project will analyze changes in (a) the strategies the target uses to pursue a dispute; (b) the outcome of the dispute between challenger and target; (c) the proximate or “mediating” outcomes that occur because of a strategy and that cause target strategy change or dispute outcomes; (d) confounding and direct influence of other factors; and (e) the recurrence of a dispute over an issue between challenger and target. Each of these areas of study are observable indicators of the intent of a target and together provide evidence that a deterrent strategy by a challenger had a causal impact on the ability and desire of a target to pursue a gray zone dispute.