Bayesian Multi-Domain Evaluation Tool

To address the Air Forces need for a tool to evaluate, understand, and predict key influential technology areas within a multi-domain, Air Force-centric future challenge, Physical Optics Corporation (POC) proposes to develop a new Bayesian Multi-Domain Evaluation Tool (BAMDET) based on novel integration of a new analyst interface with a backend software component built around recent advances in proven Bayesian network theory. Specifically, the innovations in streamlined, Excel-based operator interfacing, and automated sensitivity analysis will enable the key Air Force commands to perform analysis of alternatives (AoA) faster and to develop high-value technologies with limited resources. As a result, this technology offers an analytical capability to overcome challenges in identifying which mission and multi-mission system of systems (SoS) provide the greatest value, which directly address the Department of Defenses requirements for informed AoA. In Phase I, POC will demonstrate the feasibility of BAMDET by developing a methodology to include uncertainty in the conditional probabilities of Bayesian networks, describe how this methodology can be applied to the Air Forces development planning process, and provide an example of how it can be used to estimate the effectiveness of alternatives. In Phase II, POC will develop and implement a delivered BAMDET tool.