Guardian of the Orbits: Non-Earth Orbit Conjunction Risk Analysis Framework (NEO-CRAF)

The Non-Earth Orbit Conjunction Risk Assessment Framework (NEO-CRAF) by Vista Techwerx LLC enhances space safety by improving conjunction risk assessment for cislunar and deep-space missions. As NASA’s Artemis program and commercial lunar operations increase space traffic, traditional Earth-based risk models fail to address sparse tracking data, multi-body gravitational effects, and non-Keplerian orbits. This project develops an advanced probabilistic framework integrating machine learning, Bayesian inference, and uncertainty modeling to improve collision risk prediction. Phase I funding will support key innovations, including Delaunay triangulation-based proximity modeling, particle filtering for dynamic state estimation, and Dempster-Shafer theory for probabilistic conflict resolution. These will enhance NASA’s MADCAP tool, refining deep-space trajectory predictions and multi-source data fusion. A Non-Earth Orbit Conjunction Risk Assessment Dashboard (NEO-CRAD) will provide real-time risk visualization and classification, supporting NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR 8079.1) for conjunction assessment. Target markets include NASA, commercial lunar operators, and international space agencies, with applications in autonomous deep-space navigation and on-orbit servicing. Phase I lays the foundation for scalable, AI-driven risk assessment, ensuring safer, more sustainable space operations.