A Coupled System for Predicting SPE Fluxes

Solar Particle Events (SPEs) represent a major hazard for extravehicular maneuvers by astronauts in Earth orbit, and for eventual manned interplanetary space travel. They can also harm aircraft avionics, communication and navigation. We propose to develop a system to aid forecasters in the prediction of such events, and in the identification/lengthening of "all clear" time periods when there is a low probability of such events occurring. The system leverages three recently developed technologies: physics-based models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere, robust CME modeling techniques, and empirical/physics-based assessments of energetic particle fluxes using the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM, University of New Hampshire). When completed, the proposed SPE Threat Assessment Tool, or STAT, will represent a significant step forward in our ability to assess the possible impact of SPE events.