Variational Dynamics and Object Oriented Inference for Track Refinement in Unknown Break-up Scenarios

Under this SBIR effort, the DECISIVE ANALYTICS Corporation (DAC) team proposes an innovative solution to the issue of post-break-up missile fragment tracking and break-up characterization. It will apply to the case where the in-flight missile break-up event is not directly observed. The objective is to track fragments and to determine as much information as possible regarding the nature of the event. The product of this SBIR will be able to estimate both the event time for an unobserved break-up as well as the differential velocities imparted upon the missile fragments at break-up while taking into account continuing sensor measurements and error estimates. The proposed approach builds on DACs experience in designing, implementing and delivering advanced decision aids to the DoD and intelligence communities, and will result in a tool suitable for eventual deployment. Approved for Public Release 14-MDA-8047 (14 Nov 14)