Delivering a Solar Flare Forecast Model that Improves Flare Forecast (Timing and Magnitude) Accuracy by 25%

NorthWest Research Associates proposes to develop a prototype system to forecast solar flares for NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. Many activities and technological systems prevalent in today’s society—air traffic control and air travel, the power grids, communications, deep-water drilling operations, human spaceflight—are vulnerable to the effects of flares from our Sun, which can suddenly produce orders-of-magnitude increases in gamma-and X-rays and high-energy particles. Reliance on satellite-based high-precision positioning is particularly vulnerable. The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS) characterizes the magnetic field of the solar photosphere and corona, its recent evolution, and prior flaring history. DAFFS then delivers a categorical or probabilistic forecast for future flaring above a given size and over a specified time-frame. DAFFS out-performs the present NOAA/SWPC forecasts for most categories, in particular for extended forecasts of large events. The Phase I feasibility study demonstrated its appropriateness for extension into a real-time operational tool. The objectives of this Phase II are to (1) develop and demonstrate an operational prototype and (2) incorporate the many degrees of customization that we envision are of interest for commercial customers and other government agencies.