Implementation of real-time high-resolution extended EUV solar spectral irradiance forecast

ABSTRACT: The objective of this proposal is to achieve an operational capability to produce daily forecasts of the extended extreme ultraviolet solar spectral irradiance (XUV/EUV/FUV SSI, hereafter EUV SSI) by delivering quantitative expectations of the EUV SSI at high-spectral resolution for every day in the period of at least a week after the day the forecast is issued. The forecasted EUV SSI in the range of 0.1 to 170 nm, at resolutions of 0.1 nm and 1 nm, will be issued daily and obtained by using the available near-real-time observations of solar surface features. This forecast will be based on physical models of the solar atmosphere features, the non-LTE radiative transfer computation of the spectra appropriate for them, and near real-time observations of the Sun by various techniques and instruments that determine the area and position on the disk of each feature. Forecasted areas and positions are initially obtained by considering the currently measured and statistical properties of evolution of such features. These far-side data are used to"refine"the forecast by including the changes that occurred on the solar surface in areas that transit from the far-side to the visible solar disk. BENEFIT: Results of this work will allow improving the Air Force space catalog accuracy that is a critical component for space situational awareness. The developed model will be made available to DoD operational centers. Also, in Phase II and III we will develop commercial applications for making our output available to already existing and future prediction applications that provide neutral atmospheric density and satellite drag to commercial operators of satellites whose perigee is below several hundred km. These operators, for instance of Iridium satellites and others to be launched in the future can use the predictions for high accuracy collision avoidance and fuel estimates that will reduce the operating costs. Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are often selected because of the reduced cost of putting them in orbit; their operating costs and mission duration are very important considerations. As low orbit becomes more and more crowded by various objects collision avoidance becomes more of an issue; furthermore, liability aspects of satellite re-entry are starting to become an issue. Having a better forecast will significantly reduce the operator"s costs and we anticipate once our results are proven to provide cost improvements most operators will become users of our forecast. The commercial potential of this type of forecast has been proven already by our Co-I at Space Environment Technologies (SET) who has been supporting this market for many years (see http://www.spacewx.com/). Our applications will be served by SET and some by NWRA, and we will advertise them to the space community by various channels, including the Space Foundation (http://www.spacefoundation.org/). Also, after Phase I, we will develop commercial alliances with companies that can use our data for thermospheric modeling for DoD and commercial applications, e.g. CTIPe is now experimenting with our input and is used by NOAA and NASA, and by the small business Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates (ASTRA, see http://astraspace.net/). By this and similar links, a more complete product will be marketed that integrates the various disciplines involved in direct and complete space-weather forecast.