Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy Phase II

Since wind projects have planning time horizons up to 40 years, estimates of the fluctuations of the variables affecting their energy output must be made for a similar time frame. In addition to climate variability and change over the lifetime of a wind production facility, other meteorological factors such as interannual variability and atmospheric turbulence have the potential to alter the characteristics of the climate variables affecting wind energy production. We propose to develop software tools to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of interannual variability, atmospheric turbulence, and climate change on wind power production. To lay the groundwork for this effort, we will integrate pointmeasurements, regional climate simulations, and global climate models from the Department of Energy Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison archive to quantify the meteorological uncertainties in wind power production. In Phase I, we developed and tested techniques for the quantification of uncertainties in wind resource assessment associated with climate change, interannual climate variability, and atmospheric turbulence. During this initial project, we positively confirmed the feasibility to further build on these capabilities for the development of a commercial product prototype. In Phase II, we will build a prototype software product that provides accessible project analysis and visualization with atmospheric uncertainties shaping power production taken into account. The Phase II effort will produce a commercial prototype that will incorporate climate change and other meteorological effects along with engineering considerations into long-term wind farm project analysis and risk assessment. Commercial Applications And Other Benefits: This software will help lower costs in wind energy production by reducing uncertainty in resource assessments, thereby bringing wind energy closer to parity with traditional sources of energy. We will make this prototype software tool compatible with currently existing financial analysis, business intelligence, and enterprise-wide accounting solutions.