Contextual Sociocultural Reasoning in Weak Signal Environments

Successful military actions are becoming increasingly dependent on the compatibility of the military actions with the sociocultural and environmental context in which they occur. The objective of this proposal is to demonstrate the scientific merit and feasibility of a decision-making aid that will reveal the sociocultural characteristics most relevant for evaluating the possible success or failure of potential military operations and provide early warnings of emerging threats. We propose a methodology based on principles of signal processing, to generate probabilistic assessments of the potential outcomes, vulnerabilities, and risks for various operations. Our integrated approach to multi-disciplinary data analysis will provide the ability to detect and amplify"weak signals"sociocultural characteristics of a population that are not readily apparent in any single set of observations but that may be predictive of military outcomes or serve as early warnings of emerging threats. TerrametricsLLC will use its substantial database on Sub-Saharan Africa for this proof-of-concept analysis.