Predicting the Combined Impact of Social and Environmental Models (PreCISE Models)

Recent military missions have focused on asymmetric threats and on actions with nations that are unable or unwilling to meet the basic needs and aspirations of their people. The threats likely will grow as climate change imposes new and severe stress on the world"s populations and resources, thus increasing the leverage of opportunists who capitalize on instability. Tools that can estimate the social impact of significant weather events are thus needed to help the U.S. anticipate and respond to this instability. In response, Aptima, Inc., together with its partners Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) and Whitney, Bradley, and Brown Consulting, Inc. (WBB), is developing PreCISE (Predicting the Combined Impact of Social and Environmental) Models, a web-based decision aid that presents the predictions of uniquely-linked models of weather and human social-cultural behavior in order to facilitate planning and executing stability operations.