Fusion of Information for Response to Space Threats (FIRST)

ABSTRACT: In the proposed Fusion of Information for Response to Space Threats (FIRST) program, Barron Associates will develop an autonomous software agent for the on-board fusion of anti-satellite (ASAT) threat information. FIRST enables autonomous ASAT assessment and response by rapidly providing threat state information, classification, and confidence measures to an on-board planner/executive. Through dramatically reduced threat response timelines, FIRST will maximize a spacecraft"s opportunity to autonomously execute defensive courses of action. At the core of the fusion system is an advanced generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) based Bayesian inference engine that integrates telemetry, sensor, and environmental data to produce statically rigorous confidence measures. The proposed solution is broadly applicable to a range of potential ASAT threats, including direct ascent missile attack, ground-based laser, radio-frequency jamming, and proximity operations. The proposed Phase I program includes production of a prototype gPC-Bayesian information fusion agent for a customer-approved use case, integration of the software agent into a six degree-of-freedom threat simulation, and quantification of performance through receiver operating characteristic curves that demonstrate the sensitivity (event detection versus false positive rate) of the resulting system. Phase I will establish a roadmap subsequent Phase II demonstrations that integrate both on-orbit and ground-based experimental components with a high fidelity scenario-based simulation. BENEFIT: Barron Associates will pursue commercialization of the proposed technology through a three-pronged approach. First, the effort will open consulting services and contract R & D opportunities for providing defense and commercial satellite manufacturers with enhanced situational awareness and defensive capabilities. Second, by streamlining integration between the fusion agent and on-board planner/executive software, the program will make our existing Bayesian inference tools accessible to a broader customer base and a wider range of applications. Finally, we will pursue direct opportunities to commercialize advanced threat information fusion technologies in spin-off ventures that leverage the algorithms developed in the proposed program.