Direct Ascent Vulnerability and Reachability Services Suite

ABSTRACT: We plan to develop an operation-ready version of the next-generation Direct Ascent Vulnerability web service with UDOP visualization. The DAV suite will include the dynamic predictive functionality and reachability service prototyped in Phase I and a new vehicle trajectory prediction algorithm to be prototyped in Phase II. The DAV tools take available data on the orbital catalog and missile models and utilize orbital dynamics to determine vulnerability windows of satellites to either a direct ascent launch or a satellite from another orbit. Reachability provides a running forecast of possible threats considering a database of missile models and sites and the dynamic predictive function provides real-time analysis for discrimination between a benign launch and an attack. The service provides live and exercise modes and can be used for what-if analysis or launch planning. The operational web service must be compatible with the JSpOC Mission System (JMS) architecture and accept various real message types including ILAM, T-3, and IBS messages, and handle special perturbations satellite elements. We will deploy the new service suite on AFRL's Battlespace Evaluation Assessment Space Testbed, or BEAST, and perform testing on real-time and prepackaged data sets as available to determine the accuracy of the satellite vulnerability predictions. BENEFIT: This technology will predict which satellites are vulnerable to a direct ascent launch in real-time, in addition to providing what-if and predictive analysis. The JSpOC Mission System needs services like this to assist in space situational awareness. The recent use of direct ascent launch against satellites by both the U.S. and China indicate that this is a real threat. This suite of services was designed for predicting satellite vulnerability from the beginning and will outperform terrestrial applications designed for surface-to-surface missiles. There is a potential commercial application of a portion of the toolset for launch planning and collision avoidance, in both MATLAB and standalone application formats.