Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components

A composite fatigue damage assessment and risk informed prognosis toolkit will be developed by enhancing and integrating existing solution modules within a probabilistic analysis framework. This tool will for the first time be able to address concurrently both microcracking induced stiffness degradation and cyclic loading induced delamination crack growth without remeshing. A physics-based deterministic solver will be developed by integrating a discrete crack network model with a multiaxial fatigue damage accumulation law. An advanced probabilistic analysis framework with the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) updating procedure will be developed for risk informed total life management. The damage detection results will be integrated/fused with the physics based delamination growth prediction tool to form a risk informed damage prognosis and condition based maintenance metrics. Global Engineering and Materials, Inc. (GEM) has secured commitments for technical support from Clarkson University and Boeing, who will provide existing solution modules, supporting data, customization plug-ins, and expertise. The multi-faceted feasibility study consists of developing a method that will enable the prediction of multi-site, multi-mode damage interaction, extracting delamination driving force, characterizing delamination evolution under multiaxial non-proportional loading, and performing risk informed fatigue failure prediction and BME updating when new detection and maintenance data become available.