Next-Generation Target State Estimation Algorithms for the Interception of Maneuvering Ballistic Missiles

Hit-to-kill interception of ballistic missile targets is a challenging task requiring the use of highly accurate state estimators for mission success. Estimators based on conventional filtering technologies have now reached a certain level of sophistication, beyond which little additional performance improvements appear feasible. Phase I project developed a new approach for target state estimation which was shown to outperform existing algorithms. A realistic seeker model with non-Gaussian noise and a nonlinear dynamic model capable of reproducing a wide variety of ballistic missile motions observed in practice, were employed in the work. Feasibility of real-time operation of the target state estimation algorithm on a high-performance computing platform was then demonstrated. Phase II work will scale-up the target state estimator including all the model and algorithm refinements. A real-time hardware implementation suitable for assessment in hardware/software-in-the-loop simulation will be created. User interfaces will be provided to help tune the estimator to accommodate actual sensor noise characteristics. Under a subcontract with a major airframe integrator, the estimator performance will be evaluated in Monte Carlo simulations and hardware/software-in-the-loop simulations. Production and flight test of the integrated hardware-software system will be undertaken in collaboration with a systems integrator during the Phase III work.