Risk modeling for unmanned aircraft in US national airspace

One of the obstacles to use of unmanned aircraft in the United States is lack of quantitative understanding of the associated risk of damage or injury. We propose to develop and promote practical algorithms for estimating risk of midair collision or surface impact. We further propose complementary work on path planning to minimise risk while accomplishing mission objectives, and on simulation to demonstrate our methodology. Phase I would develop an initial implementation, with web-based tools made available for public use. Refinement and more extensive validation would follow in Phase II. BENEFIT: Tools developed under this proposal have the potential significantly to streamline applications to the FAA for authorization of UAV operations, and so to enable new applications. Commercial possibilities include ship-based imaging reconnaissance, geomagnetic survey, weather reconnaissance, and atmospheric research.