Mathematical Modeling of Dynamic Social Networks

This SBIR proposal addresses DARPA’s second mathematical challenge, the Dynamics of Networks, with the purpose to develop the high-dimensional mathematics needed to accurately model and predict behavior in large-scale distributed networks that evolve over time occurring in communication, biology, and the social sciences. We propose to develop a mathematical software package for the quantitative analysis of idea and counter-idea spread based on our recent progress in dynamic epidemic system modeling and biological regulatory network simulation. The software allows the user to study the spatial and temporal spread of contagious ideas, its transmittal speed and behavior within a population. In particular, the software includes the effects of super spreaders, connectivity of the transmittal media, transmittal capacity of spreaders, and the effectiveness of counter-idea spreaders. The software can be used to predict pattern and behavior, identify super-spreaders and optimize social networking processes across many applications with the transmission of ideas between individuals, communities, or regions. The Phase I effort will be focused on developing a prototype that is based on an eight-state model for the simulation of idea spreader and counter-idea spreader. The eventual software tool is efficient and user-friendly and can be run on PC.