PSIR (Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism)

IED and related attacks are symptoms of local instability.  Military doctrine COIN and the recently released Stability Operations (SO) Field Manuals defines key stability indicators (security, economic, essential services, governance, grievances) which can be used to represent root causes of instability. With COIN and SO doctrine providing a blueprint for our development, we propose to develop a Campaign Design Tool for Stability (and COIN) Operations that codifies the data and analytics proscribed in the blueprint, and leverages the multitude of global databases built over decades on governance, economics, grievances, and the like as context, thus responding to the doctrine that calls for the SO Commander not only be a warrior but also be a diplomat, economist, governor, and director of infrastructure services such as transportation, water, electricity.  Our tool enables the operational commander to make strategic decisions and resource allocation plans that result in the desired end states, thus promoting stability and diminishing the threat from IEDs.   Our Phase II approach is informed by our Phase I analysis in that our proposed model uses Belief networks where quantitative domain data is available, and supplants this model with domain expert knowledge to fill the gaps between the islands of data.   BENEFIT: The software that will be developed in this project is most relevant to the following markets: (1) PRT and SSTR communities, (2) COIN and military intelligence, (3) the Enterprise Social Network technology providers, and (4) foreign policy and international aid planning.