HARP: Hybrid Architecture for Reaction Predictions

In todays conflicts and wars against asymmetric adversaries the battlefield has grown beyond clear frontlines to reach into otherwise peaceful societies, across multiple countries, and even into cyberspace. Intelligence collection planners and analysts are overwhelmed by the information flow, racing to understand two fundamental problems, estimating the current and potential future states of the adversary, and making optimal use of ISR assets. To meet these challenges, Aptima proposes HARP, a Hybrid Architecture for Reaction Predictions. HARP will be an automated decision support service for intelligence analysts and ISR collection planners that will process information across multiple layers. The layers will exist at different levels of granularity, and will communicate in both directions. Layering will provide for efficient use of the detailed data detected bottom-up from the sensors and effective use and investigation of high-level top-down hypotheses. HARPs approach will also provide an effective bridge between the automated system and the human analyst. HARP will naturally enable analysts to make prediction assessments that can then help intelligence collection planners identify the most critical areas requiring additional observation. In Phase I, a HARP prototype will be constructed and demonstrated by customizing and integrating existing Aptima models. BENEFIT: As envisioned, HARP will provide a viable method for analysts to make sense of available data by estimating the current and potential future states of the adversary. With HARP analysts will identify the best ways to deploy existing ISR assets minimizing the uncertainty about future adversarial states while also minimizing the cost of deploying their ISR assets. In doing so, HARP will provide analysts with rich, timely, and intuitive assessments.