Linking Output Activity to Outcomes/Impacts in Complex Contingency Environments

Logos Technologies and the Fund for Peace will develop an Outcomes/Outputs Linkages Concept addressing complex stabilization & reconstruction environments, using the MPICE outcomes framework and applying relevant characteristics of MPICE, Effects-Based Operations and Conflict templates. The research approach includes the use of an experts team to draft both an outputs framework and an outcomes/outputs mapping concept, and the Linkage design will address structure, interagency process and software. Two examples (Haiti, Kosovo or East Timor) will provide data to support linkage investigation. The research effort will apply parts of the MPICE “expert knowledge” component, focus on an open “analyst assist” final product, consider how to combine manual with Bayesian analysis techniques, and integrate with MPICE/SHAPE software design and structures. The goal is to assemble and organize information concerning outputs and outcomes in S&RO environments, and support analysis to best understand how our efforts are/are not leading to desired outcomes. Each of the main concepts we are bringing to bear (EBO, Conflict Templates/Analysis and MPICE) offers useful elements to the overall linkage analysis problem, and the Logos research team will develop its Outcomes/Outputs Linkage concept and implementation through the appropriate integration of parts of these different supporting concepts.