Development of High-Fidelity Techniques to Model Impact Flash and Post-Impact Thermal Signature Prediction and Support Kill Assessment

Accurate collateral damage assessment is of critical importance for missile defense because determining the likelihood of a successful intercept kill is required for efficient interceptor tasking. This is especially critical for first generation missile defense systems that are likely to only have a limited number of interceptors available to address a very wide spectrum of threats. The primary goal of kill assessment is mapping the observed sensor signature to the likely post-impact physical state of the target and all of the meaningful debris (fragments) generated from the collision. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has a requirement to develop advanced numerical simulation codes and related expertise to accurately predict fragmentation and thermofluid dynamics from kill vehicle hypervelocity impacts on reentry vehicles, which can be compared with sensor signature data collected during MDA intercept experiments. The SBIR Phase 2 research proposed here will conduct a two year computational investigation expanding the SBIR Phase 1 efforts to optimize model accuracy, conduct parametric study, establish mathematical relationship between fragmentation state (spatial and thermal) and impact parameters, utilize more than one computer code to verify accuracy and reliability, and compare simulation results with observed sensor data from MDA intercept experiments.