Cultural Agent Model to Predict in Habitant Opinion Reactions (CAMPHOR)

One of the strategic goals for the United States armed forces is to win over the hearts and minds of the population in a military theater of operations. Special Operations Forces (SOF) perform missions in part to help win this battle for hearts and minds. In order to be more effective in attaining this goal, SOF team leaders need easy and rapid access to accurate, timely, and detailed intelligence about the effect of mission actions on the opinions of the local population. Aptima will improve the ability of intelligence officers to support SOF team leaders by providing an accurate and robust computer simulation of cultural dynamics that estimates the effect of SOF actions on local opinion. Social identity theory, theories from cognitive and social psychology, and theories related to social network analysis will inform the structure of the model. A data architecture will help users to populate the model even without complete, high-quality data. Experimentation and sensitivity testing will allow users to gain accurate insights when there is uncertainty in the data. With both model and data architecture, intelligence officers will be able to efficiently and effectively support SOF operations in pre-deployment, during mission planning, and in the field.