Behavior Signatures

The proposed Phase I research will illustrate and assess the feasibility of combining dynamic meaning systems, work control structures, and 4th-generation warfare principles to yield a computational environment for developing behavior signatures of a transnational insurgency movement. This environment allows intelligence analysts and operational planners to develop a functionally-linked framework of hypotheses regarding a transnational insurgency movement’s strategic/operational intent and organizational capabilities that can be dynamically maintained as an evidence-supported belief structure, and used to holistically interpret the operational significance of observed objects, events, and conditions and predictively assess and disrupt a future set of contextually-related insurgency behaviors. The research will apply the framework to two case studies involving recent transnational insurgency movements in order to (1) determine if sufficient information exists to create meaningful behavior signatures, (2) identify and illustrate computational methods and techniques that could be incorporated into a Phase II behavior signature system for dynamically maintaining and evaluating a hypothesized model of an insurgency campaign across the strategic-political-operational-tactical spectrum of operations, and (3) identify potential Air Force applications of the behavior signature system for collection management, identification of appropriate operational effects, and the targeting of specific military and interagency actions.