Maximizing the utility of high-resolution ensemble meteorological forecasts for planning and responding to hazardous releases

The two primary motivations for this work are: First, to provide forecasts of dispersion of a hazardous release and associated uncertainty (or “error bars”) based on the available ensemble MET data. Second, to provide an efficient and user-friendly tool for decision makers supporting both deterministic and ensemble forecast MET data as well as resulting dispersion model forecasts. To achieve added value the ensemble forecasts will be downscaled to high resolution, bias corrected, and weighted as part of this process. During Phase 1 AER will demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology by assembling a prototype system that leverages existing technology. This will allow multiple schemes for displaying probabilistic information from the ensemble and for evaluating, ranking, and weighting individual ensemble members to be studied and demonstrated. To satisfy these requirements, a toolkit based on a framework to support both data processing and visualization will be developed. By providing for a common representation scheme for both MET and ATD data sets, the toolkit will allow for intermediate data sets to be visualized and to diagnose how processing assumptions and choices propagate through the methodology. Additional tools and/or processes can be readily applied within this framework to extend its capabilities as needed.BENEFITS: The methodology developed will improve planning and forecasting hazardous releases and will be valuable to government agencies and to industry, especially to those agencies or companies that might be targets of terrorism and/or must handle hazardous substances as part of their function or business. These include elements of DOD, DHS, DOE, oil production facilities, ports and transportation hubs, chemical plants, and others.