Probabilistic Methodology for Establishing Test Requirements in a Gas-Turbine System Development and Demonstration (SDD) Program

The most prohibitive factor in the development of a new gas turbine engine is the cost of testing. Substantial reductions in development test costs are possible if test requirements are optimized using probabilistic methodologies. CFDRC will demonstrate a probabilistic methodology, which quantifies the modeling bias and the uncertainties associated with combustor-turbine numerical simulations. This will be accomplished through a probabilistic design analysis process that characterizes the system variance and supports the construction of a transfer function capable of describing system response. Using this approach CFDRC will establish the extent to which actual physical hardware testing can be reduced given a certain accuracy level of engineering modeling tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The methodology will be applied to define the necessary test requirements for a desired combustor-turbine performance – i.e., meet or surpass operational and lifetime specifications. Phase I will demonstrate that a reduction in system variance translates into a significant cost reduction in actual development testing. Williams has committed to supplying CFDRC critical development experience at no cost during Phase I to assist in quantifying the payoff of probabilistic methodology based on test requirements. In Phase II, this methodology will be incorporated into a software package that can be integrated into a virtual engine test cell.