Advanced, Robust Techniques in Missile Defense Resource Management Using Utility, Entropy, and Value of Information

Utility and entropy are combined in a new definition of value of information that is used to achieve more robust, effective and more highly coordinated weapon and sensor resource management for missile defense. There are two related aspects. First, the calculation of probability of kill in battlespace analysis can be improved by accounting appropriately for the future changes in track accuracy. Entropy is a suitable metric for track accuracy. The resulting improved probability of kill values will enable the engagement planner to plan engagements with greater expected utility. The term utility is used here in the sense of the objective of engagement planning, and of the missile defense system as a whole such as probability of integrated system effectiveness. Second, once track entropy calculations are in place, it becomes feasible to feed data back to the sensor manager that enables it to calculate the rate of change of utility with respect to track entropy. With that information, the sensor manager can allocate sensor resources in a way that supports maximizing expected utility. Thus, the sensor resource manager and the weapon resource manager will be working together toward an explicit common goal such as probability of integrated system effectiveness.