Optical Turbulence Forecasting for Directed Energy and Laser Communication Systems

This proposal addresses the development of advanced optical- turbulence forecasting tools to aid design, testing, and operations for applications involving laser propagation through the atmosphere. These include laser-weapons systems, free-space optical communication, and astronomical observations. Recent advances in atmospheric-dynamics research (measurement, simulation, and theory), in concert with a related MDA project, present a unique opportunity for optical-turbulence forecasting that is significantly better than what is currently available. By adapting this research, we can develop optical turbulence forecasts which simultaneously predict model expectation values and model uncertainty, allowing for the possibility of real-time evaluation of forecast skill without an ensemble procedure. The approach involves using Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling to combine NWP output with high- resolution measurement data and results from very high-resolution numerical simulations we have done of specific atmospheric processes. The methodology is well suited to the development of an improved Atmospheric Decision Aid (ADA) for the Airborne Laser (ABL), which we believe will be much more appropriate, accurate, and reliable than the existing ABL ADA. The approach is novel and has several significant advantages which we propose to explore during this Phase I effort.