Innovative Intelligent Agent and Cognitive Decision Aids Component Technology

Effects Based Operations (EBO) is defined as “a process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome or "effect" on the enemy, through the synergistic, multiplicative, and cumulative application of the full range of military and nonmilitary capabilities at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels.” Often disregarded in this thinking, however, are the unintended secondary effects of military actions that result in significant, or even catastrophic, consequences that exceed the intended usefulness of the action. These unintended effects can negatively affect the disposition of the host nation populace, while also putting additional strain on our forces and resources. Rebuilding critical infrastructures, managing civil unrest, providing humanitarian aid to civilians, and reestablishing public confidence in our intentions often consumes much more time and resources than the actual engagement. US forces are continually spread thin to fight insurgents while also assisting in maintaining the security and rebuilding of the nation. In the spirit of EBO, military commanders and planners require the ability to determine both the positive and negative overall effects of targeting certain militarily significant assets. The product of this Phase II SBIR will be an intelligent, agent-based system that performs an overall effects-based assessment of the secondary effects of planned target engagements.