New Information Technologies for Crisis Operations

Simulation results can indicate options available to deal with crises, and can support ‘what-if’ investigations in advance of an actual crisis, provided the simulation models incorporate correct underlying science. This proposal follows an initial Phase I effort in which we developed Cognitive Pedestrian software agents that incorporate physical, emotional, and rational aspects of behavior. Results include: (1) recovery of emergent behavior typical for crowd motion, (2) reasonable behavior of both fearful and curious Cognitive Pedestrian agents as they encounter a fire hazard, and (3) break-up of crowds due to the use of physical barriers. In Phase II, the Cognitive Pedestrian agents will be enhanced in a principled manner to include an explicit framework for introducing epistemological beliefs. This will allow Cognitive Pedestrian agents to model individuals holding beliefs arising from diverse cultural norms. The (sub)-cognitive capability of way-finding will also be an enhancement to the agent capability. In Phase II, a scenario that is operationally relevant to the Air Force will be the simulated. The results will be validated, using metrics obtained from subject matter experts. Through this effort, an agent-based simulation framework, with supporting libraries, will be developed; providing the capability of simulating additional scenarios using Cognitive Pedestrian agents.