Advanced Cost Model for Space Concepts Development

In this Phase 2 SBIR project for the US Air Force, Galorath, Inc. will develop the “Far Out” estimating model for costing advanced orbital vehicle concepts containing critical technologies at low readiness levels at time of evaluation. While suitable estimating methods exist to cost the development and production of orbital vehicles planned for the near term using understood technologies, concepts planned with still-immature technologies are very difficult to cost. This poses a significant challenge for advanced concept planning. As the pace of technological change increases, the estimating horizon will continue to contract and concepts may become yet more difficult to cost. The Far Out model will accept input on likely technical trends and novel configurations, thus adapting to additional information and future design creativity that may significantly impact cost. It will be developed as a plug-in to Galorath’s SEER-H hardware development and production-costing model, which is currently used to cost near-term space missions. This will leverage Far Out’s utility and market appeal. The analysis and modeling effort for this project will be conducted in stages, so useful results are obtained early and increasingly expanded on.