Bayesian Engine Reliability Development Tool

GP Technologies, in response to the critical need produced by the new ENSIP requirements for engine probabilistic design, with the support of Pratt $Whitney, GE Aircraft Engines and STI Technologies, proposes the development of a prototype software that will be the basis of A Graphically-Assisted Probabilistic Design System (GAPDS) for aircraft engines. This prototype software will incorporate state-of-the-art stochastic modeling and simulation tools integrated with accurate physics-based engineering tools. The proposed prototype software will also incorporate refined Bayesian techniques that are capable of updating the stochastic models based on the available statistical databases and knowledge-based information. A particular emphasis of the Phase I development will be on integrating information from different sources, such as experimental tests, computational analyses and expert opinions. To achieve the user-friendliness goal, the prototype software will be based on easy-to-use "graphically assisted" modeling tools that will be developed in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. The Phase I project will demonstrate the application of the proposed prototype software to the probabilistic HCF blade design problem. Two case studies will be considered: (i) a research blisk and (ii) a real designed blade. Blisk mistuning effects will be included.