Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis

It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This will be achieved by adapting a methodology and software that were originally developed for long-term safety analyses of nuclear waste disposal, and that are currently used by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission among others. The approach will provide a valuable new systems analysis capability to complement current NASA approaches, and will address many of the goals of the X8.01 Technology-Systems Analysis and Infrastructure Modeling research topic. In particular it will be useful for impact studies, risk/cost/benefit analyses, risk/uncertainty analyses, model integration, and Model-Based Design/Model-Based Engineering.