Self Assessment Tool for Intelligent Prognosis (SATIP)

ALPHATECH proposes an innovative prognostic and diagnostic reasoning assessment tool for Prognostic Health Management systems. The Self Assessment Tool for Intelligent Prognosis (SATIP) is focused towards prognosis of gradual failures in complex mechanical systems such as fatigue failures, in which prognostics is most beneficial. The goal is to ensure that the prognostic model is used within the limits of its assumptions, and to forgo prognostics when assumptions are violated. Such violations may originate from unexpected conditions such as a manufacturing flaw or battle damage. SATIP quantifies the robustness of the models based on a statistical error analysis of the prognostic and diagnostic models with respect to various sources of uncertainty such as exogenous noise and model mismatch. The resulting confidence estimator may be computed even when the state estimate cannot be computed. Based on the confidence result, SATIP decides upon the relevance of the prognostic estimate as well as the appropriate level of fault isolation. Self assessment is an important first step towards a comprehensive off-line and on-line PHM verification system for complex, mission critical, mechanical systems.