Measuring the Effect of Drawdown on Personnel Retention

SAG corporation proposes an econometric model to measure the effect of drawdown programs on Navy personnel retention. The model builds on previous retention research and includes a combination of behavioral and non-behavioral techniques to improve Navy's ability to accurately project future retention decisions. Innovative econometric techniques are employed to control for the effect of drawdown separation programs. The model uses longitudinal officer and enlisted data maintained by NPRDC and SAG's historical compensation data. Task 1 reviews recent retention, compensation and related work, focusing on military personnel studies but including appropriate, related research from the private sector. Task 2 develops a detailed overview of specific Navy loss programs. Task 3 elaborates the economic framework for analysis, and task 4 explores non-behavioral modeling issues. The task 5 option demonstrates concept feasibility by estimating the econometric model for a single Navy community.