COMPUTING ENVIRONMENTS FOR GRAPHICAL BELIEF MODELS

GRAPHICAL MODELS-MATHEMATICAL MODELS USING GRAPHS TO REPRESENT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VARIABLES-CAN SOLVE PROBLEMS IN FIELDS AS DIVERSE AS RELIABILITY, DECISION THEORY, MEDICAL DIAGNOSIS, AND GENETICS; MANY CLASSICAL STATISTICAL MODELS CAN BE EXPRESSED AS GRAPHICS MODELS. MUCH RECENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HAS CONCENTRATED ON GRAPHICAL MODELS, HOWEVER, CURRENTLY MOST GRAPHICAL MODEL MANIPULATION PROGRAMS ARE EXPERIMENTAL PROTOTYPES. IN ORDER FOR GRAPHICAL MODELS TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE PRACTICAL DESIGN OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, THEY MUST BE SUPPORTED BY DISPLAY AND ELICITATION TOOLS WHICH MAKE THEM ACCESSIBLE TO A BROADER CLASS OF USERS. THE RESEARCH WILL TAKE AN EXISTING SOFTWARE PROTOTYPE-THE BELIEF PACKAGE-AND EMBED IT IN AN EXTENSIBLE GRAPHICAL DISPLAY AND ELICITATION TOOLKIT-THE GRAPHICAL-BELIEF PACKAGE. THE FINISHED PRODUCT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT FUNCTIONALITY WHICH WILL MAKE GRAPHICAL MODELLING TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE TO A BROAD CLASS OF USERS, NAMELY DYNAMIC GRAPHICAL INTERACTION AND DISPLAY, COMPREHENSIVE ELICITATION TOOLS AND GRAPHICAL EXPLANATION FACILITIES. THIS RESEARCH EFFORT IS SPECIFICALLY STUDYING THE APPLICATION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY TO MEDICAL RISK ASSESSMENT. IN PARTICULAR, THE RESEARCH WILL EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL OF GRAPHICAL-BELIEF TO AID A CLINICIAN IN COUNSELING A PATIENT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL RISKS AND BENEFITS OF A PROPOSED PROCEDURE, AS WELL AS AIDING RESEARCHERS IN UNDERSTANDING THE LIMITATIONS ON CURRENT KNOWLEGE.