BAYESIAN METHODOLOGY FOR QUANTITATIVE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH APPLICATIONS TO COMPLEX WEAPONS SYSTEMS

A METHODOLOGY WILL BE DEVELOPED BASED ON BAYES' THEOREM FOR QUANTITATIVE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF COMPLEX WEAPONS SYSTEMS. THIS METHODOLOGY WILL BE ABLE TO USE ALL RELEVANT, OR EVEN PARTIALLY RELEVANT, EVIDENCE AND INFORMATION, INCLUDING FIELD AND LABORATORY TESTS, EXPERT OPINIONS, THEORETICAL CALCULATIONS, ACTUAL EXPERIENCE OF SIMILAR RELATED EQUIPMENT, EARLIER GENERATIONS OF THE EQUIPMENT, ETC. ALL SUCH ITEMS OF INFORMATION WILL BE APPROPRIATELY WEIGHED RELATIVE TO EACH OTHER BY THE METHODOLOGY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE USER TO OPTIMIZE HIS DECISIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE NUMBERS AND TYPES OF RELIABILITY TESTS REQUIRED.