Complex Organizational REasoning System (CORES)

"For OOTW there is a need to work with, respond to, understand, and predict the behavior of a wide range of organizations?ranging from military units to coalition forces, terrorist cells, and civilian populations. Planning for OOTW requires being able toreason about how a diverse range of organizations will respond. Intelligence analysts and mission planners need a tool to understand the behavior of these organizations and predict their possible responses to new events and actions. We propose to draw oncomputational organizational modeling theory to design the Complex Organizational REasoning System (CORES) tool in Phase I, and to develop CORES in Phase II. We will begin by identifying the strengths and weaknesses of existing computational organizationalmodels for meeting the needs identified in two OOTW scenarios. We will identify core organizational characteristics that differentiate how the organization will respond to new events and a core set of behaviors, actions, and decision parameters that needto be included if we are to significantly improve planning and rehearsal capabilities. Finally we will develop a conceptual framework for the CORES computational model, storyboards based on a concept use that demonstrate the value of CORES, and a plan forvalidating the CORES models. CORES will be a flexible tool composed of a suite of organizational models, each of which can be tailored for new populations and cultures and new rules