CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF UNIT PERFORMANCE

OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF ARMY UNITS IS THE PRODUCT OF A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A MYRIAD OF UNIT CHARACTERISTICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. WHILE ARMY SUBJECT-MATTER EXPERS (ESPECIALLY COMMANDERS) ARE ABLE TO MAJE JUDGMENTS ABOUT THE RELATIVE QUALITY OF UNITS, NO METRIC NOW EXISTS WHICH CAN BE APPLIED TO MEASURE UNIT PERFORMANCE. IT IS NECESSARY TO BUILD A MEASUREMENT MODEL WHICH ESSENTIALLY REPLICATES, IN RIGOROUS FORM, THE JUDGMENTS MADE BY INDIVIDUAL COMMANDERS AND OTHERS IN THE ARMY LEADERSHIP. THREE THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES ON THIS PROBLEM WILL BE EXPLORED IN THE PROJECT--A MULTIATTRIBUTE MODEL WHICH ALLOWS THE COMBINATION OF EMPIRICAL DATA AVAILABLE FOR SOME ASPECTS OF UNIT PERFORMANCE AND EXPERT JUDGMENT FOR THER ASPECTS; AN APPROACH BASED ON THE THEORY OF NEURAL NETWORKS WHICH IS MODELED AFTER THE PROCESSING OF COMPLEX BIOLOGICAL OR MENTAL SYSTEMS; AND AN INFERENCE NETWORK APPROACH BASED ON EXPLICATING AND MODELING THE INFERENCES MADE BY ARMY OFFICERS IN EVALUATING THEIR UNITS. THESE THREE APPROACHES WILL BE RESEARCHED AND A MODEL WHICH MAY DRAW ON PARTS OF ALL THREE WILL BE DEFINED AND TESTED ACROSS A LIMITED SET OF ARMY UNITS.