MORBIDITY RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE ELDERLY

WE PLAN TO DESIGN, IMPLEMENT, AND TEST A HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT COMPUTER PROGRAM TO GENERATE ESTIMATES OF THE PROBABILITY OF HOSPITALIZATION, DISABILITY, AND OTHER UNDESIRABLE HEALTH CONSEQUENCES AS A FUNCTION OF MEDICAL HISTORY, LABORATORY FINDINGS, AND HEALTH HABITS. THE PROGRAM, USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEALTH EXAMINATION PROGRAMS FOR PERSONS AGED 60 AND ABOVE, WILL FACILITATE APPROPRIATE SCREENING, DIAGNOSTIC TESTS, AND RISK REDUCTION INTERVENTIONS. ESTIMATES OF HEALTH CONSEQUENCES FROM RISK REDUCTION WILL BE USED TO MOTIVATE AND REINFORCE BEHAVIOR CHANGES. PHASE I IS A FEASIBILITY STUDY TO EVALUATE EXISTING RESEARCH REGARDING THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN HEALTH HABITS AND CONSEQUENCES AMONG THE ELDERLY AND RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES IN THIS POPULATION. PHASE I ALSO INCLUDES PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC USE DATATAPES FROM THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS. PHASE II INCLUDES FURTHER STATISTICAL ANALYSES, RISK FACTOR QUANTIFICATION, DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRAM SPECIFICATIONS, SOFTWARE PRODUCTION, AND INSTRUMENT TESTING IN A CLINICAL SETTING. PHASE III IS DEVOTED TO MARKETING THE PROGRAM TO MEDICAL SITES WHERE HEALTH RISK APPRAISAL IS COMMONLY USED AS A HEALTH EDUCATION INTERVENTION; THE 1984 AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION QUESTIONNAIRE REPORTED THAT 17% OF RESPONDENTS USE HEALTH RISK APPRAISAL IN COMMUNITY OUTREACH PROGRAMS (JONES 1985).