FORECASTING SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS USING A MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODEL

THE PROGNOSTIC THREE DIMENSIONAL MESOSCALE (P3DM) MODEL, ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED BY NOAA AS A FLORIDA SEA BREEZE MODEL, HAS UNDERGONE OVER A DECADE OF CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL STUDIES SUGGESTED THAT THERE WAS A STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN REGIONS OF PREDICTED MESOSCALE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE INITIAL FORMATION OF SEA BREEZE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS UNDER SYNOPTICALLY UNDISTURBED CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ACCOUNT FOR 30-40% OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPERIENCED IN THE VICINITY OF KSC. WITH NEW SUPERCOMPUTER CAPABILITIES, THE P3DM CAN BE EXECISED AT RELATIVELY LOW COST. A NEW LIGHTNING POSITION AND TRACKING SYSTEM COVERING ALL FLORIDA PROVIDES AN AVAILABLE SOURCE OF DATA TO MONITOR AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CASE STUDIES ARE USED TO EVALUATE THE POSSIBLE USE OF THE P3DM TO PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS ADVANCED INDICATION OF THE LOCATION OF FORMATION AND INITIAL CHARACTER OF SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WORK COULD FORM THE BASIS OF A FUTURE REAL-TIME SYSTEM TO SUPPORT VARIOUS KSC OPERATIONS.