SEQUENTIAL DESIGNS FOR MINE WARFARE PLANNING

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROPOSED RESEARCH IS TO DEVELOP NEW ANALYTIC METHODS FOR CHARACTERIZING MINE WARFARE EFFECTIVENESS. IT WILL USE A COMBINATION OF A PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OF SEQUENTIAL CHOICE OUTCOMES AND UNCERTAINTY IN SEQUENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE APPROACH WILL BE TO DEVELOP A SEQUENTIAL DESIGN ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE FOR INDIVIDUAL MINE FIELDS WHICH FULLY CHARACTERIZES SYSTEM PERFORMANCE LINKED TO OBJECTIVES MEASURABLE MINE AND MINE FIELD PLACEMENT ATTRIBUTES. PHASE I WILL INVOLVE 4 TASKS. IN TASK 1 WE WILL REVIEW CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE MINE PLANNING AIDS AND RELATE THEM TO SEQUENTIAL DESIGNS MODELLING. IN TASK 2 WE WILL DEVELOP AN OVERALL EQUENTIAL DESIGN ANALYTIC DESCRIPTION OF MINE FIELDS. IN TASK 3 WE WILL EVALUATE QUANTITATIVELY THE MOST PROMISING SEQUENTIAL DESIGN MODEL AGAINST CURRENT PLANNING MODELS. IN TASK 4 WE WILL INVESTIGATE THE FEASIBILITY OF GENERALIZING THE APPROACH. IN PHASE II, WE WILL DEVELOP A MANUAL OR COMPUTERIZED AID TO CONDUCT TESTS.