DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING PRECURSORS TO EARTHQUAKE-INITIATED AND FIRE-INITIATED ACCIDENT SEQUENCES

ALTHOUGH THE ASP (ACCIDENT SEQUENCE PRECURSOR) METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING OPERATIONAL DATA AND EVENTS FOR PRECURSORS TO SEVERE ACCIDENTS HAS BEEN IN EXISTENCE FOR ABOUT A DECADE, IT DOES NOT NOW INCORPORATE THE ANALYSIS OF PRECURSORS TO EARTHQUAKE-INITIATED AND INTERNAL-FIRE-INITIATED ACCIDENT SEQUENCES. THIS PROJECT'S OBJECTIVE IS TO FILL THIS GAP BY DEVELOPING SUCH A METHODOLOGY. THE OBJECTIVE OF THE PHASE I EFFORT IS TO DEMONSTRATE THAT DEVELOPING SUCH A METHODOLOGY FOR EARTHQUAKES AND INTERNAL FIRES IS FULLY FEASIBLE, AND TO LAY OUT THE STEPS REQUIRED FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTUAL STEP-BY-STEP METHODOLOGY WILL BE DEVELOPED, DOCUMENTED, AND A USERS' GUIDE PROVIDED IN PHASE II. THE PHASE I PROJECT WILL ALSO DETERMINE THE TYPES OF DATA AND PRECURSOR EVENTS WHOSE COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS ARE REQUIRED, AND THE PRA-TYPE MODELS WHOSE DEVELOPMENT IS NECESSARY TO CARRY OUT THE METHODOLOGY. THE PHASE I PROJECT WILL ALSO PROVIDE TWO STYLIZED CASE-STUDY EXAMPLES, ONE FOR EARTHQUAKES AND ONE FOR FIRES, TO DEMONSTRATE HOW THE FULLY-DEVELOPED METHODOLGOY WOULD WORK IN PRACTICE.