Risk Based Remediation Modeling

This Phase I proposal is to develop methods to couple a numerical three-dimensional groundwater contaminant fate and transport model with Monte Carlo probabilistic risk assessment methods in order to allow selection of remedial criteria based on reasonable estimates of risk to humans and the environment. The market will be searched for the most effective and available three-dimensional numerical groundwater model. The selected model will be integrated with a flexible, extensible, modular, object-oriented, probabilistic, multi-pathway, multi-chemical risk assessment approach to provide a single model allowing estimation of distributions for risks to receptors, and hence back-claculation of remedial criteria based on thosre risk estimates. The complete model will ensure consistency of the inputs to the component groundwater modeling and the risk assessment models, and will integrate both with a database of toxicology, eco-toxicology, physical, chemical, and environmental characteristics of chemicals of interest to the Air Force. It will also provide a default set of probability distributions for various parameters of importance in the risk assessment. The complete model will incorporate design features to allow extension to a graphical user interface with easy selection of defaults or choices.