ARMY RESERVE FORCE STRUCTURE PLANNING MODEL

THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE OF THE PROPOSED PHASE I PROJECT IS TO EMPIRICALLY MODEL THE RETENTION INTENTION DECISION OF ARMY SELECTED RESERVE OFFICERS AND ENLISTED PERSONNEL. THE MODELING EFFORT WILL IDENTIFY WHICH ECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND ATTITUDINAL FACTORS INCLUENCE THE RETENTION INTENTION DECISION. TWO DATABASES WILL BE USED FOR THE MODELING EFFORT: (1) THE DEFENSE MANPOWER DATA CENTER'S (DMDC) 1986 SURVEY OF RESERVE COMPONENTS FOR SELECTED RESERVE OFFICERS AND ENLISTED PERSONNEL, AND (2) THE 1985 CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY OF MULTIPLE JOBHOLDERS. ADDITIONAL REGIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE MATCHED TO THE RESERVE COMPONENTS SURVEY UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE DMDC. TWO TYPES OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS WILL BE ESTIMATED: (1) A MULTI-STAGED PROBABILITY MODEL OF RETENTION INTENTION WITH A SELECTIVITY BIAS CONTROL FACTOR, AND (2) A HAZARD FUNCTION MODEL OF THE EXPECTED DURATION OF RESERVE SERVICE.