Development of the COSYSMO-TS Decision Aid

Reifer Consultants, Inc. proposes to adapt the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO) to serve as the basis of a decision aid for performing Systems Engineering trade studies. The model, COSYSMO-TS (COSYSMO-Trade Studies), would be used toview cost as an independent variable as engineering managers made engineering decisions under uncertainty. The model, which relies on Bayesian statistical techniques for its calibration, would serve as the underlying mathematical basis for other decisionaids that were part of MDA's Systems Engineering environment. The adaption of the model would be accomplished using a proven seven step consensus process that relies on Systems Engineering experts to provide inputs via Delphi surveys. During the Phase Ieffort, experiments would be run with the model to determine whether or not it is feasible to use it for targeted decision-making under uncertainty. If successful, our Phase II effort would follow. It would be focused on developing confidence in themodel's estimating capabilities under uncertainty via controlled science-based experiments on a pilot program. Phase II success would lead to commercialization in Phase III via a proven, low risk plan of attack. The development of COSYSMO-TS has manybenefits. Technically, it would allow Systems Engineering managers to relate their technical decisions to cost under uncertainty. This would lead to better decisions as they considered cost as an independent variable. The commercial potential of themodel would be limitless. As the world continues to tie systems together, Systems Engineers in all disciplines will need such a capability to determine how to deliver needed functionality and performance at affordable prices to potential clients.