FEASIBILITY OF NUMERICAL THUNDERSTORM FORECASTS FOR SPECIFICKSC WORK COMPLEXES

KSC NEEDS IMPROVED FORECASTS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PHENOMENA BOTH FOR KSC AS A WHOLE AND, PARTICULARLY, FOR SPECIFIC WORK COMPLEXES OVER PERIODS OF 24 HOURS OR MORE. MESOSCALE NUMERICAL PROGNOSTIC MODELS MAY OFFER ENHANCED FORECAST ACCURACY. A NEW, NESTED-GRID, NON-HYDROSTATIC MODEL (ARAMS, THE ADVANCED REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELING SYSTEM) IS BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PREDICTING THE DETAILS OF LOCAL TERRAIN FORCING THAT RESULT IN VARIOUS THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. THESE INCLUDE THE SMALLER-SCALE (LESS THAN 5 KM) PERTURBATIONS INDUCED BY RIVERS AND ISLANDS IN THE KSC AREA. CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MODELING STUDIES OF ONE SUCH PHENOMENA, THE MERRITT ISLAND THUNDERSTORM (MIT), WILL SERVE AS A TEST OF THE PLAUSIBILITY OF PRODUCING USEFUL NUMERICAL MODEL-GENERATED FORECASTS FOR WORK COMPLEXES, ON THE SCALE OF 8 KM ACROSS, DURING THE UPCOMING 12 TO 24-HOUR PERIOD. DATA FROM THE SUMMER KABLE EXPERIMENT WILL BE USED. TESTS WILL ASSESS WHETHER NEW, LOW-COST GRAPHICS SUPER-COMPUTERS CAN PROVIDE COMPUTATIONAL POWER AND GRAPHICSSUFFICIENT TO FORECAST MIT-SCALE PHENOMENA WITHIN OPERATIONAL CONSTRAINTS. KSC NEEDS IMPROVED FORECASTS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED PHENOMENA BOTH FOR KSC AS A WHOLE AND, PARTICULARLY, FOR SPECIFIC WORK COMPLEXES OVER PERIODS OF 24 HOURS OR MORE. MESOSCALE NUMERICAL PROGNOSTIC MODELS MAY OFFER ENHANCED FORECAST ACCURACY. A NEW, NESTED-GRID, NON-HYDROSTATIC MODEL (ARAMS, THE ADVANCED REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELING SYSTEM) IS BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PREDICTING THE DETAILS OF LOCAL TERRAIN FORCING THAT RESULT IN VARIOUS THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. THESE INCLUDE THE SMALLER-SCALE (LESS THAN 5 KM) PERTURBATIONS INDUCED BY RIVERS AND ISLANDS IN THE KSC AREA. CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MODELING STUDIES OF ONE SUCH PHENOMENA, THE MERRITT ISLAND THUNDERSTORM (MIT), WILL SERVE AS A TEST OF THE PLAUSIBILITY OF PRODUCING USEFUL NUMERICAL MODEL-GENERATED FORECASTS FOR WORK COMPLEXES, ON THE SCALE OF 8 KM ACROSS, DURING THE UPCOMING 12 TO 24-HOUR PERIOD. DATA FROM THE SUMMER KABLE EXPERIMENT WILL BE USED. TESTS WILL ASSESS WHETHER NEW, LOW-COST GRAPHICS SUPER-COMPUTERS CAN PROVIDE COMPUTATIONAL POWER AND GRAPHICSSUFFICIENT TO FORECAST MIT-SCALE PHENOMENA WITHIN OPERATIONAL CONSTRAINTS.