LARGE SCALE SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION

WHILE THE NATION'S ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON THE NATION'S ELECTRIC ENERGY SYSTEMS, CONTINUED RELIABLE PERFORMANCE OF THOSE SYSTEMS MUST BE MAINTAINED DESPITE INCREASING FINANCIAL AND OPERATING CONSTRAINTS. THE TASK OF MAINTAINING ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RELIABILITY IS MADE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT BY THE LACK OF ANALYTICAL TOOLS FOR RELIABILITY EVALUATION WHICH ARE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO HANDLE SYSTEMS OF SUCH EXISTING AND GROWING, SIZE AND COMPLEXITY IN AN EFFECTIVE, CONVENIENT AND FLEXIBLE MANNER. EXISTING APPROACHES ARE ESSENTIALLY DETERMINISTIC AND AD HOC, WHILE PROPOSED ANALYTIC APPROACHES, DETERMINISTRIC OR PROBABILISTIC, ARE COMPUTATIONALLY INFEASIBLE. WE PROPOSE A NEW, ANALYTIC, PROBABILISTIC APPROACH WHICH OVERCOMES THESE DIFFICULTIES. THIS APPROACH BUILDS ON WORK DONE ELSEWHERE ON SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS FOR ELECTRIC ENERGY SYSTEMS, AND WORK DONE BY THE PROPOSERS, UNDER EPRI SPONSORSHIP, ON APPLICATION OF ADJOINT NETWORK BASED SENSITIVITY TECHNIQUES TO ELECTRIC ENERGY SYSTEM SECURITY ASSESSMENT. THE PROPOSED TECHNIQUE WOULD PROVIDE TO SYSTEM PLANNERS FOR THE FIRST TIME A CONVENIENT TOOL FOR MACROSCOPIC RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF PROJECTED SYSTEMS.