Probabilistic Framework for CBRN Terrorism Risk Assessment and Decision Support

The proposed research will develop a probabilistic decision analysis methodology and software framework applicable to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats and incidents. The software prototype developed in the Phase I research will include tools to enable probabilistic assessments of risk, analysis of sensitivities, and risk management strategies that can compare the impact of multiple countermeasures on outcomes. These tools will use a knowledge base that will be developed in collaboration with CBRN and public health experts. The software prototype will be demonstrated using existing scenarios and threat-related data. By exploring all plausible combinations of inputs, the software prototype will show the potential of this methodology to assist decision-makers in their understanding of risk drivers, sensitivities, and optimal response strategies.